The Guardian 

Hugo Chávez’s battle with cancer has been a political weapon for both sides

The Venezuelan opposition are likely as the government to use fears over El Comandante’s mortality to its advantage

Jonathan Watts

An alarming new episode in the saga of Hugo Chávez‘s health has gripped Venezuela since the president announced that he must return to Havana for emergency surgery. The signs are grim but after 18 months of rumours, secrets and premature reports of Chávez’s imminent demise, there are also fears the cancer concerns will again be used by both government and opposition for political ends.

Since June 2011, when the president first revealed that Cuban surgeons had removed a baseball-sized tumour from his pelvic region, there has been a stream of speculation that he was about to die, had been fully cured – or was faking the illness. Many reports have been dubious and contradictory, but the government failed to quash the rumours as it could have done by releasing Chávez’s medical records.

In recent weeks, fears about his health have surged to a new height. Chávez, once famed for his weekly televised addresses, did not appear in public for almost three weeks. He rushed to Cuba for what he said was hyperbaric oxygen treatment on 27 November with none of the usual protocols, and on Friday he skipped what ought to have been a triumphant first appearance for Venezuela at the Mercosur summit.

Instead, he came back to Caracas for a dramatic late-night announcement. He said he needed to return to Havana for fresh treatment after the discovery of malignant cells in areas where they had previously been removed. More ominously, for the first time he named his successor: the foreign affairs minister, Nicolás Maduro.

Chávez has never disclosed what type of cancer he has. Given the urgency of the case and his previous treatments, doctors suggest it is a sarcoma that is spreading. But the overseas experts that have commented on the case do not have his medical files and many previous rumours have proved at least premature and some politically motivated.

Chávez, 58, has undergone three surgeries to remove two tumours since June 2011 as well as several rounds of chemotherapy in what he describes as a «battle for health and for life». This has been characterised by courage, obfuscation, emotion and some bizarre twists, including speculation from the president that the CIA might have invented technology to spread cancer because several leftwing Latin American leaders were suffering from the disease.

In a year of elections, both the opposition and ruling camp have accused the other of distorting or hiding the truth about Chávez’s cancer to score political points.

In spring, the information minister, Andrés Izarra, and the head of the national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, dismissed claims that Chávez had returned to Cuba for treatment – only for the president to confirm the reports soon after.

Returning from another bout of treatment in Havana in April, the president made a tearful and televised appeal to God to save him. There was a crescendo of speculation about his health in the early summer as the presidential election campaign got under way.

Salvador Navarrete, a Venezuelan doctor who claimed to be close to the Chávez family, sparked an outcry by declaring the president had sarcoma and less than two years to live. After intelligence agents visited his home, he fled to Spain. Reports based on sources in Brazil, Russia and the US – who all claimed to have access to Havana’s medical reports – said the cancer had spread.

In May, the veteran US journalist Dan Rather said a presidential aide had told him Chávez was suffering from metastatic rhabdomyosarcoma, an aggressive cancer that had «entered the end stage», which meant he had only a few months to live. Others said he was so debilitated that he was unable to walk. The president’s aides said such claims were immoral fabrications.

Chávez surprised his critics by walking to register his candidacy for the election campaign. In his latest address, he said he had been given the all-clear at that point.

«Starting out the year with a recurrence, which was treated effectively, we finished radiation treatment in May, several days before I registered as a candidate for the elections,» Chávez said. «If they had found anything negative then, you can be sure that I would not have stood for re-election.»

He cut down on TV and campaign appearances, but he still cut a vigorous figure as he walked through adoring crowds and made long public speeches, including one in the pouring rain shortly before his victory. He recently said this left him with swelling and pain.

Critics accuse the ruling camp of using Chávez’s health as a political weapon. Rather than release the president’s medical records to clear up uncertainty, they say Chávez and his aides have drip-fed occasional details to capitalise on their impact.

Luis Vicente León, an analyst at Datanalisis polling agency, said: «The secrecy surrounding Chávez’s health has allowed them to control what is and isn’t said, and when it is said.

«On occasions the debate on the president’s health has diverted everyone’s attention away from other very pressing issues. If the illness was transparent it would lose its ability to influence the public arena by flooding national debate whenever they judge it convenient.»

With elections for regional governorships looming on 16 December, León said the ruling party may be trying to secure a sympathy vote.

But the signs look grim. Other analysts say the biggest issue facing Venezuela is whether the governing block can remain united if Chávez dies or is unable to lead. Javier Corrales, professor of politics at Amherst College in Massachusetts, US, said this is the most serious test for the government since 2004. «Chávez has never prepared his party, let alone his nation, for a successor.

«The party leaders are not clear among themselves about whom deserves to be the successor … If he withdraws, no one knows how this inevitable tension will be solved.»

Until now, Chávez and his aides have stifled discussion about what might happen if the president died. That was largely because this has been an election year and the ruling party did not want voters to think they might ultimately be casting ballots for a second-in-command. But by naming a successor, Chávez has raised the possibility that he might not last another 30 days until his scheduled inauguration on 10 January, in which case another presidential election would have to be called.

«It is my firm opinion, my complete and irrevocable opinion, that under this scenario, you should all vote for Nicolás,» he said in Saturday’s televised address.»

 

BBC Mundo

 

AP

Chavez faces new cancer battle, surgery in Cuba

By IAN JAMES, Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was heading back to Cuba on Sunday for a third cancer surgery after naming his vice president as his choice to lead the country if the illness cuts short his presidency.

Chavez’s announcement on Saturday night unleashed new uncertainty about the country’s future, and his supporters poured into city plazas across the nation to pray for his recovery from what appears to be an aggressive type of cancer.

Some wiped tears, while others held photos of him and chanted in unison: «Ooh-Ah! Chavez isn’t going away!»

Chavez acknowledged the seriousness of his health situation in a televised address, saying for the first time that if he suffers complications Vice President Nicolas Maduro should be elected as Venezuela’s leader to continue his socialist movement.

Several outside medical experts said that based on Chavez’s account of his condition and his treatment so far, they doubt the cancer can be cured.

Chavez said he hasn’t given up.

«With the grace of God, we’ll come out victorious,» said Chavez, who held up a crucifix and kissed it during his Saturday night appearance.

The 58-year-old president is still scheduled to be sworn in for a new six-year term Jan. 10. He has been in office for nearly 14 years, since 1999.

«There are risks. Who can deny it?» Chavez said, seated at the presidential palace beside Maduro and other aides. «In any circumstance, we should guarantee the advance of the Bolivarian Revolution.»

Chavez, who won re-election on Oct. 7, said he would undergo surgery in Havana in the coming days. Lawmakers on Sunday voted unanimously to grant him permission to leave the country for the operation.

During the session at the National Assembly, opposition lawmakers agreed to Chavez’s request and also said that Maduro should take on his duties during his temporary absence, as the constitution specifies. Opposition lawmaker Julio Borges criticized the incomplete information that has been released about Chavez’s cancer, saying: «Venezuela has a right to know the truth.»

Throughout his treatment, Chavez has kept secret various details about his illness, including the precise location of the tumors and the type of cancer. He has said he travels to Cuba for treatment because his cancer was diagnosed by doctors there.

National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello said there are no plans at this time for Chavez to cede power, even temporarily, as president.

«He’s not asking for permission to leave his duties,» Cabello said. «The chief of this revolution is Hugo Chavez.»

Cabello chided opposition politicians for questioning how forthcoming Chavez has been about his illness, likening them to «Komodo dragons.»

Some of the pro-Chavez lawmakers cried and their voices cracked with emotion as they praised him and wished him a full recovery. They chanted, «Onward, commander!»

Under the Venezuelan constitution, as vice president Maduro would automatically fill in as president on a temporary basis should Chavez be unable to finish the current term concluding in early January.

But the constitution also says that if a president-elect dies before taking office, a new election should be held within 30 days. In the meantime, the president of the National Assembly is to be in charge of the government.

More than 1,000 of Chavez’s supporters gathered on Sunday in Plaza Bolivar in Caracas to show solidarity, many wearing his movement’s red T-shirts while a marching band played.

The president, who had just returned from Cuba early Friday, said on television Saturday that tests had found a return of «some malignant cells» in the same area where tumors were previously removed.

Chavez’s quick trip home appeared aimed at sending a clear directive to his inner circle that Maduro is his chosen successor. He also called for his allies to pull together and said it’s important for the military to remain united, too.

«The enemies of the country don’t rest,» he said, without elaborating.

Chavez said his doctors had recommended he have the surgery right away, but that he had told them he wanted to return to Venezuela first.

«What I came for was this,» he said, seated below a portrait of independence hero Simon Bolivar, the inspiration of his Bolivarian Revolution movement.

Chavez had named Maduro, his longtime foreign minister, as his choice for vice president three days after winning re-election. The 50-year-old Maduro, a burly former bus driver, has shown unflagging loyalty and become a leading spokesman for the socialist leader.

Chavez said that if new elections are eventually held, his movement’s candidate should be Maduro.

«In that scenario, which under the constitution would require presidential elections to be held again, you all elect Nicolas Maduro as president,» Chavez said. «I ask that of you from my heart.»

Chavez called him «one of the young leaders with the greatest ability to continue, if I’m unable to … continue with his firm hand, with his gaze, with his heart of a man of the people.»

Chavez was flanked by Maduro and Cabello, and he held a small blue copy of the constitution in his hands. Concluding his talk, Chavez called for his aides to bring out a sword that once belonged to Bolivar, and showed it to Maduro.

«Before that sword we swear… we will be paying close attention, and I ask for all the support, all the support of the nation,» Chavez said.

State television showed Chavez’s supporters congregating in city squares on Sunday and joining hands to pray for his health. In downtown Caracas, some expressed optimism that Chavez would pull through it. Others said they weren’t sure.

«I love Chavez, and I’m worried,» said Leonardo Chirinos, a construction worker. «We don’t know what’s going to happen, but I trust that the revolution is going to continue on, no matter what happens.»

Chavez called his relapse a «new battle.» It will be his third operation to remove cancerous tissue in about a year and a half.

The president underwent surgery for an unspecified type of pelvic cancer in Cuba in June 2011, after an earlier operation for a pelvic abscess. He had another cancer surgery last February after a tumor appeared in the same area. He has also undergone chemotherapy and radiation treatments.

Chavez said in July that tests showed he was cancer-free. But he had recently reduced his public appearances, and he made his most recent trip to Cuba on Nov. 27, saying he would receive hyperbaric oxygen treatment. Such treatment is regularly used to help heal tissues damaged by radiation treatment.

Chavez said that while in Cuba tests detected the recurrence of cancer.

Dr. Julian Molina, an oncologist at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, said that based upon the limited information Chavez has made public about his cancer it appears to be terminal.

«For a patient in similar circumstances where you have given surgery as a first line of treatment, then chemotherapy, then radiation therapy and you are still dealing with a tumor this late — that indicates that it is not a curable cancer,» he told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.

Molina and other medical experts said Chavez’s next surgery likely won’t be high-risk.

«I think if they are planning to do any surgery it is to improve his quality of life, meaning to remove a tumor that is located in a place that is either producing some pain or some difficulty for the patient,» Molina said.

He agreed with other doctors queried by the AP that Chavez could have a sarcoma, which he said tend to spread to the lungs. Based on Chavez’s treatment regimen, he said, it’s highly unlikely he’s suffering from colon or prostate cancer, though it could also be bladder cancer.

Molina said it is extremely difficult to say how long Chavez has to live. «You need to know more specifics about the case,» he said.

Chavez said he wouldn’t have run for re-election this year if tests at the time had shown signs of cancer. He also made his most specific comments yet about his movement carrying on without him if necessary.

«Fortunately, this revolution doesn’t depend on one man,» Chavez said. «Today we have a collective leadership.»

Throughout his presidency, though, Chavez has been a one-man political phenomenon, and until the appointment of Maduro he hadn’t designated any clear successor.

«Chavez is in the short term irreplaceable in terms of leadership and of national impact,» said Luis Vicente Leon, a pollster who heads the Venezuelan firm Datanalisis.

Still, he said, Chavez’s announcement could help his party’s candidates rally support in upcoming state gubernatorial elections on Dec. 16. Leon also said that if Chavez’s candidates have a strong showing, it could give his party an added boost to promote constitutional changes to allow Maduro to succeed Chavez without the need for a new election. Such a possibility has not been publicly raised by Chavez’s political allies.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who was defeated in the presidential vote, wished Chavez a speedy recovery.

He also bristled at the idea of Maduro being a designated political heir, saying: «When a person leaves his position the public has the last word, because we’re in Venezuela and not Cuba.»

«Here you can’t talk about successors,» Capriles said.

 

Caracol de Colombia

Maduro no es Chávez y no hará lo que él hace: analistas

Para Shifter, si Capriles no gana en Miranda, «será un fuerte golpe a la situación política», y la campaña electoral en esa región «está bastante reñida».

El presidente del diálogo interamericano advirtió en diálogo con Caracol Radio que una eventual falta absoluta de Hugo Chávez generaría una atomización del chavismo, que no encontraría un reemplazo como el mandatario venezolano.

Shifter describió el panorama venezolano como “dramático” y sin precedentes, ya que al presentarse por primera vez la posibilidad de que el mandatario nombre a su sucesor, en este caso Nicolás Maduro, “aumenta la incertidumbre” en ese país.

“Maduro no es Chávez y difícilmente pueda hacer lo que él hace, crearía una división dentro de chavismo y sería una situación que aprovecharía la oposición”, indicó Shifter, quien no obstante destacó que el canciller y cicepresidente “tiene historia y experiencia, además de cierta capacidad”.

Sin embargo, el analista tampoco prevé un panorama fácil para la oposición, representada en el gobernador de Miranda y ex candidato presidencial, Enrique Capriles, quien el 16 de diciembre busca su reelección en el estado venezolano.

Por otra parte, Edgar Gutiérrez, consultor venezolano, considera que no hubo transparencia por parte del Gobierno de su país con el estado real de salud del presidente Hugo Chávez.

“Los venezolanos no hemos sabido con transparencia sobre el verdadero estado de salud del presidente Hugo Chávez, solamente conocemos de sus dolores, pero no hay un parte médico oficial, no hay un informe, es decir los venezolanos no conocemos de la situación exacta”, señaló.

A su turno Teodoro Pedkofff, dirigente venezolano, señaló que la fecha clave para definir que va a pasar con Venezuela, es el próximo 10 de enero cuando Chávez debe asumir como presidente, después de haber ganado la reelección.

“Lo que dice la constitución es claro, si hay falta absoluta del Presidente toma posesión el presidente de la Asamblea Nacional y tienen que convocar nuevamente a elecciones”, dijo.

 

Bloomberg Businessweek

Chavez Names Loyalist Heir as Venezuela Eyes Succession

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez named a longtime ally with close ties to Cuba his heir apparent as the cancer-stricken leader prepares for a potential departure after almost 14 years in power.

Chavez, in a nationwide address over the weekend, said he was throwing his “irrevocable, absolute” support behind Vice President Nicolas Maduro to lead his 21st century socialist revolution should he be unable to carry out his duties. Chavez made the comments before flying to Cuba before dawn today for surgery, his fourth in 18 months, to treat an undisclosed form of cancer that reappeared after winning re-election in October.

Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader, has been one of Chavez’s closest civilian allies since the then-tank commander first attracted national attention by leading a failed 1992 coup. While the president’s endorsement carries weight with Chavez’s base among the poor, a succession battle involving the more business-friendly, military wing of his movement and against a revitalized opposition is only beginning as the strongman’s grip on power weakens.

“In the short-term, Maduro is empowered but we don’t know what will happen afterwards,” Luis Vicente Leon, president of Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis, said in a telephone interview. “It’s one thing for Chavez, alive and in power, to exorcize internal arguments, but we’ll have to see how the infighting can be covered up without him there.”

Call for Unity

The 50-year-old Maduro is one of the president’s longest- serving aides, having been head of the National Assembly before becoming Foreign Minister in 2006. As Venezuela’s top diplomat, he traveled frequently to Cuba while building Chavez’s anti- American alliance with countries including Iran and Nicaragua. He continues to hold that post even after Chavez named him his vice president following his larger-than-expected victory over opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski.

“It’s my firm opinion, clear like a full moon, irrevocable, absolute, total, that in a scenario that would oblige new presidential elections that you should elect Nicolas Maduro,” Chavez said Dec. 8, while calling upon Venezuelans to show “unity, unity, unity” in the days and weeks ahead.

Bonds Surge

While the 58-year-old Chavez didn’t reveal any plans to cede power, investors are increasingly convinced he will. Yields on the dollar debt of South America’s biggest oil producer plunged 60 basis points today to the lowest since November 2007 as investors bet a change in government would augur a reversal of nationalizations and currency and price controls that have stoked 18 percent inflation and driven away investment.

Maduro, who today inspected a new cable car transport system under construction in Caracas, didn’t comment on his anointment as successor and instead wished Chavez a speedy recovery.

“Chavez has been and is a father for us,” Maduro said. “He’s educated us in the fight, in anti-imperialism and in the ideas for a socialist society.”

Pre-recorded images broadcast on state television today showed Chavez kissing a crucifix and waving to members of his cabinet as he boarded a plane at Caracas airport.

‘Good Hands’

“I’m leaving and even though I’m not handing over the high political command, I know I’m leaving it in good hands,” Chavez told top military generals at the presidential palace earlier. “There’s Nicolas,” he said, gesturing to Maduro, who was sat next to him.

In addition to Capriles, who was favored to defeat any pro- government candidate in polls taken earlier this year, Maduro also faces a potential challenge from another key Chavez ally: National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello. A former lieutenant who fought alongside Chavez in the 1992 army rebellion against then-President Carlos Andres Perez, the 49- year-old is in line to become caretaker president should Chavez fail to take the oath for a third, six-year term on Jan. 10. Under the constitution, he’d have 30 days to hold elections.

Chavez’s decision to break a 21-day silence and return last week from Cuba, where he’s been undergoing hyperbaric oxygen therapy, may have been prompted by a need to rein in Cabello, said Vladimir Villegas, who served as Maduro’s deputy foreign minister between 2006 and 2007 before leaving the government in protest over Chavez’s policies.

Military Connections

Cabello’s military connections afford him “a lot of power although he’s more feared than loved both within and outside the government,” Villegas, who writes a column for the Caracas- based daily El Nacional, said in phone interview.

In a sign of unity, Cabello sat next to Chavez and Maduro as the president announced his endorsement over the weekend. Still, underscoring how messy any succession battle could become in the polarized country, he held out the prospect of violence should Chavez step down.

“Even the opposition should be praying that Chavez gets better,” Cabello said on state television after Chavez’s address. “He is the guarantee of peace in the country.”

Thousands of Chavez supporters gathered in squares across Caracas yesterday to pray for their president as he prepares to leave for Cuba, while leaders across the political spectrum in Latin America sent message wishing him a quick recovery.

Chavez has reduced his public appearances since being re- elected, fueling rumors that his health was worse than he was letting on after he claimed during the campaign he was “totally free” of cancer.

Opposition’s Chances

Chavez’s decision to name a successor also increases the importance of regional elections Dec. 16, where the man Maduro replaced as vice president, Elias Jaua, is pitted against Capriles for the governorship of Miranda state. A win for Capriles would boost his chances of holding together an unruly anti-Chavez alliance and mounting a successful presidential bid, while a defeat would be “disastrous” for the opposition’s chances, said Leon.

Polls before this weekend’s announcement showed mixed results, with one taken Nov. 21 to 26 by Caracas-based polling companying Ivad predicting a landslide win for Capriles and another taken this month by Hinterlaces favoring Jaua by 49 percent to 44 percent.

Capriles, while wishing Chavez a swift recovery yesterday, questioned his decision to name a would-be replacement.

‘Not Cuba’

“Venezuela doesn’t have succession,” Capriles, 40, said in comments broadcast on Globovision. “This is not Cuba nor is it a monarchy that has a king. Here in Venezuela, when someone leaves a position, the people get the last word.”

One way Chavez may try to solidify backing for Maduro is by pushing for a constitutional amendment to allow him to serve out the remainder of his third term, said Leon. Under the nation’s charter, elections must be held within 30 days if Chavez steps down within the first four years of his new term. Chavez, before going to Cuba last month, ruled out any constitutional reform.

“Maduro is a guy with lots of political experience and it would be a mistake to underestimate him — that’s why Chavez chose him,” said Villegas, who as a teenager attended the same high school as Maduro in southern Caracas. “Chavez wants someone who can guarantee continuity to his fundamental ideas for the country but also a person who as a former union leader is capable of negotiating.”

While Maduro could scale back some of Chavez’s more radical policies he’s unlikely to be market-friendly and will likely spook investors, said Bret Rosen, a Latin America debt strategist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch expects Venezuela’s economy to contract 3.6 percent next year as a result of an expected devaluation of the bolivar needed to close a fiscal gap widened by Chavez’s pre-election spending boom.

‘The Devil You Know’

“Maduro is not Chicago School of Economics by any stretch,” Rosen said in a telephone interview. “Sometimes the devil you know is better than the one you don’t.”

By contrast, business leaders see Cabello as more of a pragmatist than members of the civilian, pro-Cuban wing of the government that Maduro leads. In 1999, as Chavez’s chief telecommunications regulator, he ended Cia. Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela’s monopoly on fixed-line phone service.

Whoever has the upper hand, the time for Chavez to step aside appears to be nearing.

“Whatever happens with the operation, Chavez is clearly signaling that he won’t be able to complete his term,” said Villegas. “Everyone is starting to see that Chavez is becoming a thing of the past.”

 

Venezuelan Bonds Soar on Chavez Cancer Recurrence

Venezuelan bonds surged, sending benchmark yields to a five-year low, as speculation mounted that President Hugo Chavez will be unable to complete his third term after he acknowledged a recurrence of his cancer.

The yield on the government’s dollar bonds due 2027 plunged 45 basis points, or 0.45 percentage point, to 8.91 percent at 1:07 p.m. in New York as traders anticipated a new administration taking office and courting the investment Chavez drove away. The bond’s price jumped 3.64 cents to 102.74 cents on the dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chavez traveled to Cuba for more surgery today after urging Venezuelans to vote for Vice President Nicolas Maduro if he is unable to remain in office, marking the first time he’s indicated who he wants to succeed him since falling ill in June 2011. Speculation his health was deteriorating following his re- election mounted after he spent 12 days in Cuba as part of a 21- day absence from public view that ended Dec. 7.

“This is different because Chavez has never addressed his successor before,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, a strategist at Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami, said in a telephone interview today. “This is a de facto admission of near term incapacitation. That he specifically mentioned a chance he might not be at inauguration day, that told the market this guy isn’t going to be around for his six-year term.”

Currency Controls

Today’s gains add to a two-week rally that left Venezuelan bonds up 44.7 percent this year, the second-biggest return in emerging markets after the Ivory Coast. In his 14 years in office, Chavez has seized more than 1,000 companies and imposed currency and price controls as part of what he says is a push to turn South America’s biggest oil producer into a socialist country. Those moves left Venezuela’s yield premium to U.S. Treasuries over 1,000 basis points as recently as Oct. 10, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global index.

“There is a clear correlation between the price of Venezuela’s debt and Chavez’s health,” Jorge Piedrahita, chief executive officer at Torino Capital LLC, said in a telephone interview on Dec. 6. “The market believes that a post-Chavez Venezuela will not be socialist.”

Five-year credit-default swaps insuring Venezuelan bonds against non-payment fell 48 basis points today to 600 basis points, the lowest level since September 2008. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or cash. Falling prices signal improving investor perceptions of a borrower’s creditworthiness.

October Vote

The five-year contracts may rally further, driving the cost down to about 500 basis points, according to Nomura Securities Co. Ltd and Jefferies Group Inc.

“We’ve already had impressive gains to date and I think once five-year credit-default swaps reach around 500 basis points then investors will look to start to take profits,” Siobhan Morden, the head of Latin America fixed-income strategy at Jefferies Group Inc., said in an e-mailed response to questions.

Chavez defeated opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski in October’s vote by more than 10 percentage points, winning a third six-year term.

Prior to the vote, Chavez told Venezuelans he was “totally free” of cancer following three operations and six prior trips to Cuba this year for treatment. Chavez, who has never said what kind of cancer he has, is due to be inaugurated to his third term on Jan. 10.

Gubernatorial Elections

“We finished radiation treatment in May, several days before I registered as a candidate for the elections,” Chavez said on Dec. 8. “If they had found anything negative, you can be sure that I would not have stood for re-election.”

Venezuela’s opposition had called for the government to provide more information about Chavez’s health.

“I hope there is profound reflection in our country about the need to speak the truth,” Capriles, who will stand for re- election as governor of Miranda state this month, said yesterday in comments carried on the Globovision television network. “Venezuela does not have succession. This is not Cuba nor is it a monarchy that has a king. Here in Venezuela, when someone leaves a position, the people get the last word.”

National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, who spoke on state television on Dec. 8, said that the South American country’s military supported Chavez and that the opposition shouldn’t try to take advantage of Chavez’s health concerns. He said Chavez’s cancer won’t disrupt gubernatorial elections set for Dec. 16.

“Even the opposition should be praying that Chavez gets better,” Cabello said. “He is the guarantee of peace in the country.”

The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold Venezuelan government dollar bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries dropped 60 basis points to 7.54 percentage points today, according to JPMorgan’s EMBI Global index. Investors demanded an extra yield of 8.29 percentage points to hold Ecuadorean debt and 10.47 percentage points to hold Argentine notes today.

Venezuela is a more attractive investment than Bolivia, which sold bonds at 4.9 percent in October, and Mongolia, which last month sold $1.5 billion of bonds in two tranches at yields of 4.1 percent and 5.1 percent, Russ Dallen, head bond trader at Caracas Capital Markets, said in an interview.

“Venezuela is actually a much better story than any of those countries because of the oil exports at $100 a barrel,” he said.

Bolivar’s Plunge

The country has the world’s largest reserves of oil, totaling about 300 billion barrels, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and currently produces about 2.8 million barrels a day. Oil traded above $86 a barrel today in New York and has averaged more than $90 this year.

Speculation Chavez would devalue the bolivar after his re- election helped spur a 46 percent plunge in the currency in unregulated trading this year to 16.01 per dollar, according to Lechuga Verde, a website that tracks the rate. Venezuelans use the black market when they can’t get access to dollars at the official exchange rates of 4.3 and 5.3 per dollar.

Chavez’s return to Cuba could delay the devaluation, said Bret Rosen, a Latin America strategist at Standard Chartered Bank.

“With Chavez out of the country indefinitely, and his health a major worry, we doubt any major economic decisions will be taken in the near term,” he wrote in a note to clients yesterday. “The timing of a devaluation is likely to be on hold.”

Chavismo’s Options

Under Venezuelan law, if Chavez is too ill to carry out his duties, the vice president would take over until the beginning of a new presidential term Jan. 10. If Chavez is unable to attend the inauguration scheduled on that date, the National Assembly president would assume power while elections are arranged within 30 days. If he does take office and then becomes too ill within the first four years, the vice president takes over the presidency for 30 days while elections are held.

While “Chavismo,” the political movement led by Chavez, will seek to stay in power should he not be able to complete his new term, his party’s economic policy may be more pragmatic, according to Torino Capital’s Piedrahita.

“The market is going to take it that things are serious and the time of Chavez leading Venezuela may actually be coming to an end,” Ray Zucaro, who helps manage about $240 million of emerging-market debt at SW Asset Management LLC in Newport Beach, California, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “The market’s reaction will be that anything is better than the current status-quo.”

 

El País

Chávez llega a La Habana tras confirmar a la cúpula militar

Los dirigentes latinoamericanos se vuelcan con mensajes de apoyo al mandatario venezolano

El avión Airbus que llevó a Hugo Chávez a La Habana despegó del aeropuerto de Caracas a la 1.15 de la madrugada de ayer (6.45 en España). Pero el canal estatal venezolano no retransmitió las imágenes de su viaje hasta las siete de la mañana. Cuando los venezolanos se despertaron, ya se encontraron con la noticia de que el presidente había llegado a Cuba, para someterse a una cuarta cirugía contra el cáncer que le fue diagnosticado en junio de 2011. Hasta su regreso ha quedado a cargo de la presidencia Nicolás Maduro, vicepresidente y canciller, ungido por Chávez el sábado como su sucesor en caso de que muera. La cuarta operación a la que será sometido el presidente venezolano ha despertado una ola de solidaridad entre la clase dirigente latinoamericana. A los mensajes de apoyo de la argentina, Cristina Fernández, su homólogo colombiano, Juan Manuel Santos, el chileno Sebastián Piñera y el boliviano Evo Morales, se ha unido el viaje relámpago anunciado esta mañana por el presidente ecuatoriano, Rafael Correa, que acompañará a Chávez durante unas horas en La Habana.

“¡Viva la patria!”, fue lo único que se le escuchó decir al comandante-presidente a través de la cadena oficial VTV, justo antes de subir al avión. En la cabina de la nave estaba ya la mayor de sus tres hijas. En tierra se quedaron los ministros y los oficiales del alto mando militar que fueron a despedirle. El cáncer que sufre el presidente venezolano fue diagnosticado el 30 de junio del año pasado y desde entonces ha sido operado tres veces, dos de ellas para extirparle sendos tumores malignos en el abdomen, y ha recibido tratamientos con radio y quimioterapia. En todo este tiempo se ha negado a revelar qué tipo de cáncer padece y qué órganos de su cuerpo han sido afectados por la enfermedad.

El 27 de noviembre, Chávez volvió a La Habana y permaneció allí nueve días para recibir un terapia alternativa de “oxigenación hiperbárica” dirigida a paliar los efectos de la radiación. Los exámenes que le practicaron durante esa visita revelaron que aún había “células malignas” en el mismo lugar donde estuvieron alojados los tumores y, en consecuencia, los médicos recomendaron operarle lo más pronto posible.

Chávez, sin embargo, regresó a Caracas el 8 de diciembre para resolver tareas pendientes. El día 9 se dirigió al país en televisión nacional para informar sobre reincidencia de la enfermedad y para ungir al vicepresidente y canciller Nicolás Maduro como su sucesor en caso de que falleciera. “Si algo ocurriera, que me inhabilitara de alguna manera, Nicolás Maduro no sólo debe concluir el periodo, como manda la Constitución, sino que mi opinión firme, plena como la luna llena, irrevocable, absoluta, total, es que en ese escenario, que obligaría a convocar elecciones presidenciales, ustedes elijan a Nicolás Maduro como presidente. Yo se los pido desde mi corazón”, dijo Chávez a sus seguidores el sábado por la noche y agregó: “Lo más importante que vine a hacer aquí, haciendo el esfuerzo del viaje para retornar mañana, ha sido esto, Nicolás”.

La recaída de Chávez ocurre un mes antes de que culmine su tercer periodo en la presidencia y de que comience el cuarto mandato, para el cual fue reelecto en las elecciones del 7 de octubre pasado. En la eventualidad de que muera y se produzca entonces la “falta absoluta” del presidente de la república, la Constitución venezolana establece dos mecanismos: si Chávez muere antes del 10 de enero, cuando culmina su tercer Gobierno, deberá asumir el mando el vicepresidente Maduro hasta que termine el periodo; y si Chávez fallece después del 10 de enero, cuando debería comenzar su cuarto Gobierno, la presidencia quedará en manos del presidente del Parlamento, Diosdado Cabello, hasta que se convoquen nuevas elecciones en un plazo de 30 días.

Poco antes de su partida a La Habana, este domingo, Chávez reunió a todo el alto mando militar en el Palacio de Miraflores para tomar juramento al nuevo ministro de la Defensa, el almirante Diego Molero Bellavia, a quien designó por teléfono el 29 de octubre pasado. Lo usual es que esta ceremonia se realice en medio de un gran acto público, en el patio de la Academia Militar, pero la enfermedad ha obligado a Chávez a optar por este acto privado, que fue parcialmente transmitido en diferido por la televisión oficial. “Me voy y el alto mando político, aunque no lo entrego, lo delego, y está en buenas manos. Ahí está Nicolás (Maduro, vicepresidente) y ahí está todo el cuadro político de mando de la República. Y el alto mando militar está en buenas manos, así que la República, la revolución está en buenas manos”, dijo Chávez durante la jura del ministro.

El mayor desvelo de Chávez es dejar su “revolución” bien atada. Por eso ha insistido, una y otra vez en sus discursos, que tanto el partido de Gobierno, el PSUV, como las Fuerzas Armadas Nacionales deben mantenerse y reconocer a Nicolás Maduro como el nuevo líder. No será una tarea fácil, pues en el oficialismo conviven desde el radicalismo civil de izquierdas hasta el militarismo de derecha, corrientes diversas que solo el liderazgo de Chávez ha mantenido unidas. De momento, el nuevo ministro de defensa le ha jurado a Chávez que “cuenta con una Fuerza Armada leal e incondicional a la revolución, con su pueblo, con lo que usted lidera”. De fondo, en mitad del acto, uno de los generales ha gritado “¡Viva Chávez!” para demostrarle que, si muere, no serán sus armas las que acabarán con la revolución.

 

 Centro de Información de Internet China

ESPECIAL: Debaten en Venezuela posible susesor de presidente Chávez

Tras el anuncio del presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, de requerir una nueva intervención quirúrgica al reaparecer por segunda vez el cáncer pélvico que padece desde junio de 2011, se activó el debate sobre el futuro liderazgo de la nación sudamericana.

Tras el anuncio del presidente de Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, de requerir una nueva intervención quirúrgica al reaparecer por segunda vez el cáncer pélvico que padece desde junio de 2011, se activó el debate sobre el futuro liderazgo de la nación sudamericana.

En el anuncio presidencial, el líder revolucionario venezolano asomó por primera vez la posibilidad de dejar al vicepresidente Nicolás Maduro como el posible sucesor político y garante de la continuación de su proyecto socialista.

En caso de quedar inhabilitado para gobernar, Chávez afirmó en cadena nacional de radio y televisión que Maduro, «no sólo en esa situación debe concluir el periodo como manda la Constitución, ustedes elijan a Maduro como presidente. Yo se los pido de corazón».

«Chávez está nombrando un sucesor permanente en la revolución para ir enfrentando a la oposición en el futuro y consolidar la revolución. Este es el fin formal del presidente Chávez», afirmó a Xinhua el presidente de la encuestadora Datanálisis, Luis Vicente León.

El experto explicó que Chávez deja clara la incertidumbre sobre la continuación de la revolución bajo otras figuras políticas del Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV).

León sostuvo que el llamado de unidad favorecerá a los candidatos designados por Chávez en los resultados de las próximas elecciones regionales, a celebrase en la nación sudamericana el 16 de diciembre.

De hecho, a tan sólo 12 horas de la decisión, el bloque del oficialismo convocó a concentraciones masivas en las plazas Bolívar de Venezuela, donde hizo un llamado de unidad política y de lealtad a Chávez.

«Conformamos la fuerza revolucionaria que hay en Venezuela porque nos sentimos profundamente orgullosos de ser revolucionarios, chavistas y bolivarianos. Sobre esos valores, y fieles a esos principios, nos unimos con disciplina», dijo el ex vicepresidente Elías Jaua.

Jaua, candidato a la gobernación del estado Miranda, fue el vocero designado por los 23 candidatos a la gobernación de las 23 de los 24 estados de la nación sudamericana para encarar un emotivo acto en la plaza Bolívar de Caracas sobre la salud de Chávez.

León mantiene que fue una buena jugada del presidente Chávez.

El asomar una posible retirada sirve «para consolidar esa herencia y reducir los impactos de la división interna que se avecina».

«No obstante, a largo plazo es un gran problema para el chavismo. Ante la ausencia de su líder fundamental, en un país donde él está muy lejos, sin duda, de sus líderes o sustitutos», concluyó.

En el caso de una ausencia absoluta del gobernante Chávez para su toma de posesión en enero próximo y al asomarse la posibilidad de una contienda presidencial inmediata en Venezuela, la oposición también puede presentar candidatos divisiones por personalismos.

«Sería un gran reto para ser una opción de poder ante el gobierno, la única manera de que la oposición pueda derrotar el gobierno es presentando un candidato unitario y posición unitaria», indicó el director de Dataminig, José Vicente Carrasquero.

El también politólogo augura un escenario similar para el chavismo, puesto que piensa que el presidente «eligió a dedo» al canciller Nicolás Maduro, en contra de su discurso tradicional de elegir desde las bases y eso genera molestias en sus seguidores.

«Esta situación ha alimentado la incertidumbre en el país, pone sobre el tapete quién debe gobernar en medio de las dificultades que se están viviendo en medio de un ‘boom’ petrolero (…) El resultado va a depender del comportamiento de los liderazgos políticos», señaló. Fi

 

El Nuevo Herald

Chávez viaja a Cuba para nueva operación

FABIOLA SANCHEZ AP